In a previous article, we expressed skepticism about the ability of the Italian political system to solve its problem in the long term.
We would now like to stress that, even in the short term, the crisis is not over at all. This is demonstrated by the fact that the re-election of President Napolitano could lead to three absolutely different outcomes.
In the most optimistic scenario (for the establishment at least), Mr Napolitano will be able to appoint a bipartisan Government, which will reform the electoral law allowing the President to schedule new elections, which in turn will allow a single coalition to get a majority and finally rule the country. But can this be ever possible in a country where three main political factions (the right, the left and the Five Stars Movement) got nearly the same number of votes ?
In an intermediate scenario, Mr Napolitano will not be able to appoint a Government, or the Government will not be able to reform the electoral law. This scenario is quite likely, since many leftist MPs are expected to be unwilling to form a Government together with Mr Berlusconi, and even some hardline allies of the Cavaliere refuse an alliance, albeit temporary, with the left. The Five Stars Movement is staunchly opposing what it calls the ‘inciucio’, something like ‘unholy alliance’, but even more derogatory.
In the worst scenario (for mainstream commentators at least), the tentative by the traditional parties to accomplish the ‘inciucio’ will strengthen the Movement even more. A test will be the regional elections which are ongoing in Friuli Venezia Giulia. The left, the right and the Movement each have a gubernatioral candidate running. According to polls, each of the three contenders could win, although this was before the national disaster of the Democratic Party.